Spreading the Truth About Point Spreads
Gamblers love their favorites. Oddsmakers put a point spread on a game, and also the natural tendency of even many longtime bettors is to think this signifies how much a group is”favorite” over the next to win the match.
Needless to say, it frequently has little to do with this, since oddsmakers put the spreads based on public perception with the sole objective of getting 50 percent of bettors to bet on each group, so”the home” comes out ahead no matter whether the favorite or the underdog triumphs.
A prime example is that the 2003 Super Bowl, where oddsmakers all around the country made the aging nonetheless offensive-oriented Oakland Raiders 4.5-point favorites within the youthful, defense-minded Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Avid followers of soccer saw great value in this distribute, knowing that defense most often wins big contests. But fans adore offense, not defense, and fans who bet love favorites.
So, many bettors stuck their heads from the sand and plunked down their money on the Raiders. Some sportsbooks reported stakes on Oakland -4.5 outweighing those on Tampa Bay +4.5 by an astounding 9-1 ratio. In the end, the Buccaneers blasted the Raiders, and many novels made out like bandits, because too few bettors put sufficient stock in the worth of underdogs.
In +4.5, Tampa Bay almost settled the event before halftime, mounting a 17-point lead, since the only time that a Super Bowl team has rallied from a 10-point deficit to triumph was 1988, when Washington scored the last six touchdowns in a 42-10 trouncing of Denver.
Obviously, sports fans and gamblers can be forgiven if they have a deeply ingrained misconception of what point spreads signify. Remember, the media — especially TV and radio broadcasters — must tap-dance around the dilemma of gambling, since it is illegal in 99% of the U.S.. In fact, if broadcasters mention that the point spread at all, it may be in passing, for example,”The Vikings are favored by a touchdown within the Packers.”
The significant hypocrisy is there spreads, especially on soccer and basketball, can be located in virtually every newspaper in the country, even those hundreds of miles from the nearest legal casino or sportsbook.
Shopping For Baseball Bargains
When I had been extolling the virtues of betting on baseball (and hockey) from the prior chapter, I intentionally failed to mention that a lot of the value on betting moneylines comes in the financial upside of going with underdogs. I waited to get into this until today, knowing that this chapter is dedicated entirely to the subject.
I never fully understood the power of underdogs until I met Andrew in Vegas. He’s a professional gambler but”works” just 6 months a year, during baseball season. Andrew lives — and lives well — about the money he makes throughout the season, averaging roughly $20,000 profit per month.
Remarkably enough, he does not work that hard on earning money during baseball season. All told, it requires Andrew approximately 15 minutes each morning to make his picks for the day, then he goes and plays a round of golf and also can be home with the wife and kids by mid-afternoon.
After I saw the sort of money he was making and how simple he appeared to be doing it, I told Andrew I had to know his method. At first he was reluctant, like a grandma with her key, prize-winning peach pie recipe. But, like many people having a great secret, he finally spilled the beans.
It ends up, he bets only on baseball and that he bets only on underdogs. And, as I said, it takes him time to ascertain who he is betting each day than it will for him to get in the first tee to the second hole in the golf course. Much less time, in fact, since he’s not much of a golfer.
Today I’m going to teach you that his secret, which I’ve modified slightly to maximize profits. I call it, fittingly, The Baseball Underdog System.
All my 12 Money-Management Programs are composed of a Series of bets that are either predetermined with me or can be quickly calculated by you with a Formula I’ll provide you.
For the purposes of our cases in this chapter, all bets are at varying moneyline odds, which will be explained with every scenario.
The Baseball Underdog System is based on a law of averages showing that, over the long run, MLB underdogs beat favorites about 4 games from 9 (or 44% of the time). In spite of moneyline odds on underdogs earning you better than even money — meaning that at +130 you put $10 to win 13 — you need to stand up better than a record of 4 wins and 5 losses every day to make significant gains.
By way of instance, let us assume you bet $10 on each of 9 underdogs today, with every getting +130 moneyline odds. Should you win 4 games, you profit $13 per $52 total. But the $50 you lose when 5 favorites triumph gives you a slim $2 gain overall. So instead of just betting on the underdogs in every match, You Have to weed out about two-thirds of those matches by following my 3 easy criteria: