This weekend, we have a 12-fight card with 2 title fights in Toronto, Canada. We’re back to having PPV sized competitions on DraftKings this week and there are a few strong GPPs to chase this week. The most important GPP is a $10 entry using $25,000 to 1st place. These are always my favourite contests to chase so I will be shooting some shots at that. Aside from that, I will adhere to my 3-entry max & single entry GPPs. I will also be picking up H2Hs through the week and I will find a good quantity of play in games. With that said, here are a few plays I enjoy this week as well as my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of this week — Joanna Jedrzejczyk ($6,800)
JJ might be the simplest cash game punt of time at $6.8k. The lineup for Fight Goes To Decision is now -195 and when we are getting 5-rounds from JJ using the striking volume she puts out then we have a good floor there also and it doesn’t matter if she wins or loses. At the cost she lets you cover up for some heavy favorites and if we could get 4 other areas to win with a ~40-point reduction from JJ within our lineup then we’ll be sitting very pretty in our cash games this weekend.
GPP play of this week — Thiago Santos ($8,800)
Fight Does Not Go To Conclusion is presently lined at -495 for this fight. The most probable outcome is that somebody in this fight gets hauled out in 15-minutes. With that knockout likely comes in one 10-point knock down. If this can be from the 1st round, then you are already at 100-points even if it is just the 1st punch/kick of the night. At $8.8k that’s more than sufficient to offer you a chance at 1st place in a GPP. Thiago is your favorite in this struggle and Manuwa is 38-years old today, so he can not have a lot of time at the match left. I think we role with the favorite here and throw into our GPP lineups and then wait for the fireworks.
Underdog drama of the week — Matthew Lopez ($7,300)
Matthew Lopez is my underdog of this week due to his wrestling/grappling possible. I also think he is a live underdog here. Lopez dropped his last 2 fights by knockout, so that’s really what I would be worried about most with him Brad Katona is most likely the better striker of the two but he has never knocked anybody out, so I think we have a solid floor here at $7.3k even if this fight does stay standing since I don’t watch Katona knocking Lopez out. I think Lopez is most likely the better wrestler of the two though and I believe he lands several takedowns in this fight and may win a choice using a wrestling-heavy game plan. Lopez lands 3.13 takedowns per 15-minutes in a 57 percent precision, and when he is getting pieced up on the feet I’m sure he will be going for much greater than that here. At $7.3k I believe Lopez makes for a good play in most formats and I think he has a split decision win here as the road underdog.
Fade of the week — Katlyn Chookagian ($8,700)
I am fading a few fighters this week , but the person I never even considered using was Katlyn Chookagian. It is not that I don’t believe she can win, since she for sure could, and I believe she does. But I don’t see her paying off an $8.7k DK salary with a win. I think we would need a complete from her in this fight to receive 10x that salary and I believe that’s quite unlikely to happen. Or, she will need FightMetric to count all of her screams as important strikes. The maximum Chookagian has ever scored in a UFC fight up to now in her career is 83 DK points which has been against Irene Aldana who sets a much greater rate than Jessica Eye does. Even though she could get 83-points here afterward still wouldn’t be enough here to put her in the winning lineup in her $8.7k price label. I think if you are earning 20 or less lineups this Saturday you can safely fade Chookagian and if she gets a win it shouldn’t hurt much.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown each struggle on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all my select forecasts, you can find that for only $7.99 on this link below:
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